Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Probability Problem

Have a crack at this great probability problem.

You have the choice of three stocks to buy: A, B or C. You must buy one and only one of the stocks. Colin the all knowing (and always correct) chartist tells you that two of the stocks are dogs and one is a ten bagger. You have no information available to figure out which one is the ten bagger and which are the dogs. You go ahead and randomly pick one of the stocks to buy.

Colin then reveals that one of the stocks you did not select is a dog and tells you its name (A, B or C). Colin then gives you an opportunity to change your mind. That is, to stay with your original selection or switch to the remaining stocks. Should you switch or stay?

I'll post up the answer tomorrow!

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